“Let us eat and drink; for tomorrow we shall die” The Bible, Isaiah 22:13.
Recently I read a couple of worrying reports and then the Bible verse above came to mind. Not very reassuring, perhaps. First, I read the Wall Street Journal reported that there simply are not enough chickens in Africa. To be exact, they found that there is not enough chicken to meet the demand of the fast-food industry and that one chicken-based franchise now has to sell fish instead. While the WSJ discussed the chicken crisis in relation to the proposed expansion of fast food outlets in Africa, the availability of chickens on the table is a crude measure for protein intake which is in turn a crucial measure of health. And if you are militaristic, then you already know that sometime the difference between victory and defeat in war could easily be the number of chickens in your coop. please don’t ask me how.
It was only in 2006 that Nigeria and many other countries in Africa grappled with the bird-flu epidemic. In an effort to prevent the spread of the flu, we saw many countries culling (killing) the stock of chicken from farms in the regions where the epidemic is reported; this is done whether or not symptoms of the flu were noticed on the specific farms. It is not clear how many birds were officially culled by officials in Africa during the epidemic. In Nigeria for example, veterinary officials did not cull in smaller farms or in households where a smaller number of birds are kept. Also, this culling business takes time: a farmer in Kano reported that he lost a total of 2,478 birds, but officials only killed the brave 240 which were still standing by the time they arrived and he got compensation only for the 240.
At its peak, the epidemic had spread to 22 of Nigeria’s 36 states and led to the loss of about 1.3 million birds and $5.4 million paid in compensation. This figure is likely to be a low estimate, but we know for example that the worst hit farms such as Sambawa Farms in Kaduna lost over 45,000 chickens and many ostriches.
It was a good thing that the Nigerian Government paid compensation (about $1.90 per bird) for the birds that were culled by government officials. The amount is very little but it is a commendable gesture in a country that has very little insurance coverage of any kind. Unfortunately, there are reports that many small scale farmers did not benefit from the compensation plan. It is clear that the bird flu epidemic decimated the Nigerian poultry industry; I doubt that there has been a recovery back to the pre-2006 state.
In 2006, Nigeria was hit by the bird flu after it has instituted a ban on the importation of poultry products in 2002. To know the efficacy of this ban though, I suggest you visit the nearest market and hunt for frozen chicken. With local production decimated by the flu epidemic and imports banned, the stage is set for a chicken crisis in Nigeria. Frankly, it is a mystery that it took this long before the crisis is in the news. But the WSJ report shows that we are facing an African chicken crisis, not merely Nigerian.
Away from chickens to tomatoes – the other item on the recipe, Lamido Sanusi, Nigeria’s Central Bank Governor has revealed that Nigeria is the “world’s largest importer of tomato paste”. What a feat for a country like ours. Growing up in Pankshin, Plateau State, I recall that farmers used to throw away tomatoes in the market to recover their bamboo baskets when the price fixed by the buying cartel was considered unacceptable. Tomatoes being perishable did not allow farmers much bargaining power. So slowly, over the years the Pankshin tomato industry dwindled as farmers turn to other crops or opted out of farming altogether.
The media reported Sanusi as saying that “soon” a single farm would begin producing 1,000 metric tonnes of tomato paste – and that that is a third of Nigeria’s current import needs. It surprised me that Sanusi was not concerned that a singly producer would soon control a third of the market. That kind of monopoly I think is unhealthy for business, for the economy and for our pockets.
After chicken and tomatoes, we come to rice. It is common knowledge that flood in 2012 was devastating. But I was unaware that it “destroyed 400,000 hectares of arable land in 23 out of 36 states” as reported by GAIN. In spite of [unaware of?] this destruction and the likely impact on food production, the Federal Government of Nigeria has imposed and commenced implementing a 100% levy on rice importation in 2013 with the noble target of banning rice importation by 2015. The question is, what shall we be eating in 2015?
Phasing out imports is crucial especially in a country like Nigeria which has the potential to feed the world. But the phase-out needs to be implemented alongside the promotion of domestic production. Perhaps it was to achieve this coherence in policy that the Ministry of Agriculture is equipping local farmers with 10 million mobile phones – such a policy would allow the minister to discuss farming matters directly with farmers. From the Premium Times report, it is clear that Sanusi does not agree with the government policy on rice in particular, but also on agriculture in general. Farmers and other lesser mortals like us would struggle to understand the direction of a government policy that is questioned by the Central Bank. Phasing out imports without confirmed domestic production capacity leads to where we are with the chickens – we don’t have enough.
What I have tried to tell you so far is that chicken, tomato paste and rice are endangered species in the market in Nigeria. The onus is now on you to try to figure out what you will be eating without these 3 items, especially on Sundays if you live in Nigeria. But sharp price changes on the food market in Nigeria are not new. In 2012, scarcity of ‘fresh’ tomatoes jacked up prices from 6,000 NGN to 20,000 NGN per basket in Lagos.
After considering a number of factors including the 2012 floods, experts have issued a West Africa Food Security Alert which warned that 2012/2013 staple food production in Nigeria will be 12% lower than earlier anticipated in November 2012. This sharp decline in expected productivity is worrying since the November 2012 prediction was already adjusted for the floods. Perhaps the 17.6 billion NGN disbursed in 2012 as special intervention for the areas affected by the floods is not reaching farmers hence productivity is not improving. The implication of this decline for Nigerians is clear: prices of staple food items will rise in general, but with particular impact on rice, tomato and chicken.
Unfortunately, the adverse effect of Nigeria’s reduced productivity will be felt across West Africa. The FEWS Net report warned that “Staple food production decreases in Nigeria; regional prices likely to rise unseasonably”. In a region where prices could triple during strikes as was the case in Nigeria in January 2012, the warning that food prices could rise “unseasonably” should be worrying. Details are presented in Nigeria’s Food Security Outlook for the first part of 2013.
So here is the situation as I see it: we eat our last meal today and then fold our hands then tomorrow we die; or we could grow our own food today and tomorrow we eat. Obviously it is about time we do the honourable thing: to grow our food. Growing your own food in Nigeria will certainly make a difference when prices go up; but it will also save you from eating horse meat – except of course if the ‘food’ that you grow for yourself turns to be a horse. Understandably, new entrants into the farming business would put pressure on the on-going efforts of the government to provide mobile phones to farmers, but if you could plant something (be it in a pot in front of your city house or an acre in the village); you will hopefully be buying less than you would if you don’t.
Let us eat therefore and drink today; for tomorrow we begin our farms.
________
Daniel Nengak
Nengak Daniel Gondyi is presently a post-graduate student in International Migration and Ethnic Relations at Malmö Högskola inSweden. He is also a Senior Programme Officer of the Abuja based Centre for Democracy and Development, CDD. He holds a Bachelors’ in International Studies from the Ahmadu Bello University. Read his full profile here.
